A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
